Planning a heating business in Ontario

The heating mix in Ontario

From Statistics Canada's Table 38-10-0286-01:

Gas was the main energy for 58% of all households in 2023, electricity for 18% and propane for 4%. Inside furnace homes, 80% burned gas; inside boiler homes, 45% did. Heat pumps quadrupled over the decade from a very small base. They are a growing line, but still a small one.

Competitors and density

The June 2026 Business Counts list 6,525 Ontario employer locations in plumbing, heating and air-conditioning. By our calculation, 60.2% had one to four staff and 694 had 20 or more, so the province has both the most micro-firms and the most large ones.

Ontario had 3,677,431 residential gas customers at the end of 2025, up 28,258 on the year. Our rough ratio is about 564 gas customers per contractor location, between BC and Alberta. In practice the crowding shows up in paid search, where many firms bid on the same furnace terms in the same cities.

Seasonality and climate

Southern Ontario's winters are cold but softened near the Great Lakes; the North runs longer and colder. By our reading of the gas distribution table, 72.9% of 2025 residential gas was delivered from November to March, and the peak month was about 8.6 times the quietest.

Ontario also has a real cooling season in the south. That gives companies selling heat pumps and air conditioning a second, smaller summer peak, which helps fill the trough that pure furnace firms face.

Regulators to know

• The TSSA registers fuels contractors; fuels work in Ontario is done by TSSA-registered firms with certified gas technicians.
• The Electrical Safety Authority licenses electrical contractors, which matters if you also advertise electrical work.
• Skilled Trades Ontario handles trade certification.
• The WSIB covers workplace insurance.
• Consumer Protection Ontario handles consumer complaints.

We link these for reference only.

Programs as of October 2026

• Home Renovation Savings Program. Run by Save on Energy and Enbridge Gas with provincial support. It lists rebates of up to $7,500 for cold-climate air source heat pumps and up to $12,000 for ground source, plus other measures.
• Energy Affordability Program. Free upgrades for income-eligible households, including an oil-to-heat-pump stream described as limited-time.
• National Heat Pump Rebate Program. Announced 2026-10-08 and not yet open.

Ontario had no Canada Greener Homes Affordability agreement as of October 2026. Confirm all terms with the administrator before advertising.

How we would approach Ontario

In a crowded market, the growth plan narrows. We would pick the neighbourhoods where your crew can reach customers fastest and build pages and Google Business Profile coverage around them, rather than bidding against everyone across a whole region. Furnaces usually stay the core line, with heat pumps grown deliberately where rebates and your crew's training line up.

Paid search gets the hardest scrutiny, because that is where crowding costs most. The scorecard tracks spend per booked install by line, and the growth plan moves budget toward whichever line earns the most per installer hour.

Ontario clients work with our parent brands HVAC.Agency and HVAC.Digital, and pay our listed prices plus 13% HST (CRA rates). Roma Heating & Cooling saw 400% organic traffic growth in 12 months; more on our results page. We are a marketing and consulting service, not a contractor. Call, text or email to start.