New Brunswick is a case study in how quickly a heating market can change. In ten years, electric baseboards went from the main system in half of all homes to under a third, and heat pumps, counted together with mini-splits, became the most common way to heat. For a heating owner, the market has shifted from installing a first heat pump to servicing, upgrading and eventually replacing a large installed base.
The heating mix in New Brunswick
From Statistics Canada's Table 38-10-0286-01:
| Measure | 2013 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Electric baseboards as main system | 52% | 31% |
| Heat pump | 10% | 27% |
| Mini-split heat pump | not separately reported | 21% |
| Forced-air furnace | 22% | 9% |
| Electricity as main energy | 60% | 39% |
| Oil as main energy | 14% | 3% (use with caution) |
Boiler figures for New Brunswick were too unreliable to publish in 2023. Wood remained the main energy for 6% of households, a reminder that rural service areas behave differently from Moncton or Fredericton.
City figures sharpen the picture. In the Moncton census area, Statistics Canada reported 38% of households on mini-splits in 2023; in Saint John, 32% on heat pumps and 38% on baseboards.
Competitors and density
The June 2026 Business Counts list 360 New Brunswick employer locations in plumbing, heating and air-conditioning. By our calculation, 54.2% had one to four staff and 55, or 15.3%, had 20 or more, the highest share of larger firms among the provinces. Mid-sized competitors with established brands are a real feature of this market.
Seasonality and climate
Snowy winters are the rule, with the Fundy shore milder than the interior and the north. Natural gas reaches only about 8,300 residential customers, according to Statistics Canada's gas distribution table, so gas is no guide to demand here.
The heat pump base changes the calendar. Heat pumps serve both heating and cooling, so service demand spreads into summer more than in a furnace province, and maintenance agreements can be sold year-round.
A worked example: the service base
Here is why the installed base matters, using illustrative numbers. Suppose 3,000 homes in your service area run a heat pump and you hold maintenance agreements on 300 of them. If you can lift that to 450 over two years at an annual agreement price you set, you add 150 recurring customers who are also first in line for replacement. Your own price, renewal rate and replacement rate replace ours; the scorecard tracks all three.
Regulators to know
- Technical Inspection Services, in the Department of Public Safety, licenses electrical and plumbing contractors and issues boiler, pressure vessel and gas permits.
- Skilled Trades NB runs apprenticeship and certification.
- WorkSafeNB covers workplace safety and compensation.
- The Financial and Consumer Services Commission handles consumer protection.
Programs as of October 2026
- Total Home Energy Savings Program. Listed by Save Energy NB with incentives for heating, insulation and windows.
- Enhanced Energy Savings Program. Income-qualified upgrades, also listed by Save Energy NB; we have not confirmed the details.
- Oil to Heat Pump Affordability (NB co-delivery). Registration closed on 2026-06-30, paperwork was due 2026-10-01, and upgrades must be finished by 2027-03-31.
- National Heat Pump Rebate Program. Announced 2026-10-08, not yet open.
When we checked in October 2026, no federal affordability-program agreement had been signed with the province, unlike its Atlantic neighbours.
How we would approach New Brunswick
The growth plan here starts with the installed base. Thousands of heat pumps put in over the past decade will need service, and some will need replacement. A company that builds maintenance agreements around them, and markets replacement before failure, has recurring revenue that a first-install business lacks.
New installs still matter in baseboard homes, especially in Saint John where baseboards remain common. Furnace work is a minor line, and oil conversion work is winding down with the program. Our growth plan sets the weights, and the scorecard tracks agreements by equipment type.
New Brunswick clients pay our listed prices plus 15% HST (CRA rates); see pricing. We are a marketing and consulting service, not a contractor. Call, text or email to start.
Frequently asked questions
How common are heat pumps in New Brunswick?
Very. In 2023, a heat pump was the main heating system for 27% of New Brunswick households and a mini-split for another 21%, according to Statistics Canada. Mini-splits were counted separately for the first time that year.
Is oil heating still a market in New Brunswick?
A small one. Oil was the main energy for 3% of households in 2023, a use-with-caution estimate, down from 14% in 2013. The province's oil-to-heat-pump co-delivery program closed registrations on 2026-06-30.
What programs are open?
As of October 2026, Save Energy NB lists the Total Home Energy Savings Program, and an Enhanced Energy Savings Program for income-qualified homes whose details we have not confirmed. Check with NB Power before advertising either.
What tax applies to New Brunswick clients?
New Brunswick clients pay our listed prices plus 15% HST.
Sources
- Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01: Primary heating systems and type of energy (2026-10-23)
- Statistics Canada Table 33-10-1174-01: Canadian Business Counts, with employees, June 2026 (2026-10-23)
- Save Energy NB: programs for homes (2026-10-23)
- Save Energy NB (2026-10-23)
- Government of New Brunswick: Technical Inspection Services (2026-10-23)
- CRA: GST/HST rates by province (2026-10-23)
- Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0059-01: Canadian monthly natural gas distribution (2026-10-23)
- Skilled Trades NB (2026-10-23)
- WorkSafeNB (2026-10-23)
- Financial and Consumer Services Commission (2026-10-23)