Planning a heating business in Manitoba

The heating mix in Manitoba

Statistics Canada's Table 38-10-0286-01 reports, for 2023:

Within furnace homes, 73% used gas and 25% electricity in 2023. A quarter of furnace households on electric resistance heat is a large, identifiable group. Heat pump shares were too small to report reliably, which tells you the conversion market is early.

Competitors and density

Manitoba had 516 employer locations in plumbing, heating and air-conditioning in the June 2026 Business Counts. By our calculation, only 47.7% had one to four staff, the lowest share among the provinces, and 14.5% had 20 or more. Manitoba's field leans toward established, mid-sized firms.

With 274,173 residential gas customers at the end of 2025, our rough ratio is about 531 gas customers per location.

Seasonality and climate

Manitoba's heating season is among the longest in southern Canada. By our calculation from the gas distribution table, 77.9% of the 2025 residential gas load fell between November and March, and the peak month was about 13.4 times the quietest.

That is a capacity problem first and a marketing problem second. Ad spend in January buys calls you may not be able to answer; spend in May and September can fill the calendar with planned work.

Regulators to know

• The Office of the Fire Commissioner issues permits and tradesperson licences under Manitoba's gas and oil burner rules and oversees boiler and pressure vessel inspection.
• Apprenticeship Manitoba handles trade certification.
• WCB Manitoba covers workplace compensation.
• The Manitoba Consumer Protection Office handles consumer matters.

Programs as of October 2026

• Air Source Heat Pump Rebate. Efficiency Manitoba lists $2,000 for ducted cold-climate units and $1,500 for ductless in existing primary homes, with a supplier bonus tied to heat-load calculations before 2027-03-31.
• Affordable Home Energy Program. A free heat pump program for qualifying electrically heated homes, installed by registered program contractors; we have not re-confirmed current eligibility.
• Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program. Manitoba signed the first agreement, announced 2025-09-12, with nearly $30 million in federal funding, delivered by Efficiency Manitoba for low- to median-income households.
• Oil to Heat Pump Affordability. Closed in Manitoba on 2026-07-31.

Confirm with the administrator before promoting any of these.

What the electric furnace group means

The electric furnace figure deserves a closer look because it is a ready-made audience. An electrically heated home already has ductwork, already pays for electricity at a rate the owner sees every month, and is the kind of home rebate programs aim at. If one in four furnace homes in your service area fits that profile, a heat pump campaign aimed specifically at them, rather than at every homeowner, is likely to cost less per booked job. That is a hypothesis to test on your scorecard, not a promise.

How we would approach Manitoba

The plan usually runs on two tracks. Track one keeps the gas furnace replacement business strong, with maintenance agreements sold in the shoulder months to smooth the extreme peak. Track two targets electrically heated homes with heat pump marketing, built around the current rebate and clear explanations of cold-climate performance, written in plain terms your technicians have approved.

The growth plan decides how much weight each track gets; the capacity plan keeps winter manageable. Manitoba clients pay our listed prices plus 5% GST, with PST only where it applies (CRA rates); see pricing. We are a marketing and consulting service, not a contractor. Call, text or email to start.